With the conclusion of the seventh round of China-US high-level economic and trade consultations, US President Trump announced on his Twitter account on the 24th that he will postpone the plan to raise China’s tariffs on US exports to the US on March 1. This news is spreading rapidly in China. The ceramic industry naturally cares about how much benefit it can bring to the Chinese ceramic tile export market in 2019.
Recently, Liu Yamin, senior engineer of the National Key Laboratory of Building Ceramics and Ceramics Testing, said that according to customs-related statistics Analysis, from January to December 2018, China’s ceramic tile exports were 3.986 billion US dollars, down 9.94% year-on-year, the average unit price increased from 0.28 US dollars / kg to 0.29 US dollars / kg. In 2018, the top 10 countries or regions in China’s ceramic tile products are exported to the United States, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea, Thailand, Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Cambodia. Among them, the United States, Indonesia, Australia, and Malaysia showed an upward trend year-on-year. Why are these countries going up?
In addition, according to Xiaobian, recently, the British Minister of International Trade Liam Fox said at the Ceramics Industry Conference that in the absence of an agreement to leave the EU, it may be possible to exempt import tariffs. Maintain consumer prices. Today, Xiao Bian makes a detailed analysis of the market prospects of the five countries’ ceramic industry.
United States: Slow market growth
Since 2014, the United States has been the country with the largest export of ceramic tiles in China. Therefore, the major ceramic enterprises also put the US market At the position of NO.1.
But the Sino-US trade war has had a negative impact on the trade between the Chinese ceramics industry and its “big customers” in the United States. From the table below we can see that the United States imports tiles from China 2015. From 2016 to 2016, the growth rate was 6.8%, and the growth rate from 2016 to 2017 was 12.7%. From 2017 to 2018, the growth rate of China’s ceramic tiles exported to the United States was only 2.02%.
The top 5 national data analysis of imported ceramic tiles in the United States
Opening the external factor of Sino-US trade war, the US real estate market is gradually weakening, which is also the decline of the ceramic tile export rate. One reason. According to US official data, the annual rate of new housing starts in the United States in October 2018 was seasonally adjusted to 1.228 million units, down 2.9% from the 1.265 million units in October 2017. The annual sales rate of new single-family home sales in October 2018 was 54.4. Ten thousand sets, down 12.0% from the 618,000 sets in October 2017; the annual single-family home sales in October 2018 were adjusted to an annual rate of 4.62 million sets, down 5.3% from October 2017.
The gradual weakening of the US real estate industry may be directly related to the higher interest rate on fixed mortgages. On September 30, 2018, the US fixed mortgage rate was 4.83%, up from 4.63% in the previous month and the highest monthly interest rate since April 2011.
In addition, the actual GDP change in the first three quarters of the United States in 2018 is estimated at 3.5%, which is 0.7% lower than the first three quarters of 2017. The US unemployment rate also fell from 4.1% in October 2017 to 3.7% in October 2018.
Although Trump decided today to postpone the plan to increase China’s tariffs on US exports to the US on March 1, the outlook for the US tile market is unclear by analyzing the above data.
Australia: Good and bad at the same time
Since 2000, Australian tile imports have continued to grow. In 2018, the total amount of ceramic tiles imported from China by Australia increased by only 1.44% year-on-year, which may be related to the decline of the Australian real estate market. According to the latest data report of the Australian Bureau of Statistics, on December 18, 2018, the total number of Australian housing approvals was 14,875, down 4.1% from November 2018, down 24.7% from 2017. . The trend of the total value of buildings approved in December 2018 fell by 1.5% and has fallen for 13 consecutive months. Residential property prices fell by 2.6% and have fallen for 12 consecutive months. The value of non-domestic flats rose by 0.2%, and the seasonally adjusted value of residential buildings fell by 7.5% in December.
In addition, the number of housing starts in Australia is also declining. In the fourth quarter of 2018, a total of 54,803 residential units were started in Australia, down 5.7% from the third quarter of 2017 and down 2.2% from the fourth quarter of 2017. . The overall value of overall construction work is estimated to increase by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018. After adjusting for seasonal factors, the overall value of total construction projects fell by 2.7% in the September quarter.
Although the Australian real estate market fell in 2018, the growth of ceramic tiles imported from China was slow. However, from January 1st, 2019, the macro interest of all Chinese goods entering Australia will be exempted from tariffs, which may stimulate the Chinese ceramic tile market in Australia. (From January 1st, 2019, China’s ceramic tile zero tariffs entered Australia? (with market analysis and 20+ customer list))
Malaysia: Imported Chinese ceramic tile growth rate
In 2018, the Chinese ceramic tile export market in Malaysia grew rapidly, reaching 15.11%, and its growth rate ranked first among the top 10 countries in China.
After a comparative analysis, the main reasons for the increase in the total amount of Chinese ceramic tiles imported from Malaysia are:
1. The Malaysian real estate market is booming.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of Malaysia, the total value of construction projects completed by the Malaysian construction industry in the fourth quarter of 2018 is approximately RMB 60 billion, * year-on-year.In the third quarter of the year, 59.7 billion yuan increased by 4.1%. Among them, the growth rate of engineering, special industry activities and non-residential buildings was 14.3%, 8.2% and 2.5%, respectively. The growth of these major projects promoted the growth of construction projects. However, the total value of residential buildings in Malaysia fell to 9.2%. In 2018, the total value of construction projects in Malaysia was 239.2 billion yuan, an increase of 5.1% over the previous year’s 227.6 billion yuan.
Second, Malaysia’s local ceramic tile production costs continue to increase.
In recent years, the Malaysian government has cut energy subsidies drastically and natural gas prices have continued to rise. At the same time, labor costs in Malaysia have remained high. According to statistics, labor costs in Malaysia account for 35% of the total cost of tile production, which is doubled compared with other ASEAN tile producers. As the cost of producing ceramic tiles in Malaysia continues to rise, the price of ceramic tiles has also been rising. Therefore, the price advantage of imported ceramic tiles in China is more obvious.
Since Malaysia’s local ceramic tile production costs continue to rise, why does Jin Yitao want to invest in Malaysia? One of the reasons for this may be to circumvent the anti-dumping policies of overseas countries against China. Second, Today, the Malaysian currency Ringgit has depreciated sharply, which is the best time to invest. There are no other reasons for this. Xiao Bian does not dare to speculate, but now it is a wave of Chinese ceramic enterprises to build factories overseas. (Overseas Chinese-funded ceramics factories have so many! What risks should be avoided in “going out” in 2019?)
Indonesia: quite potential for development
Indonesia China brick import data growth is obvious It reached 10.93% and ranked third among the top ten importers of Chinese ceramic tiles.
Indonesia’s market is particularly worthy of attention from major ceramic companies, leading to the rise in Indonesia’s imported ceramic tile market:
I. Indonesia’s booming construction industry promotes its construction materials use.
In 2018, the total amount of housing construction in Indonesia has reached a new high. In 2019, more housing will be built and the quality of housing will be improved. Indonesia’s Ministry of Public Works and Housing said that with the encouragement of the government’s “Million Housing Program”, Indonesia’s total civilian housing construction reached a record high in 2018, with a total of 1.132 million houses built, of which government construction accounted for 20%, while the rest It consists of developers building houses and self-built houses.
In 2019, the Indonesian government also plans to build 1.25 million homes. In addition, the Indonesian government will also develop a series of government projects: for example, the government of Jakarta is expected to invest in 10 vocational schools in 2019, and refurbish 137 schools. The construction of Indonesian Sukabumi Airport will begin construction in early 2019.
Second, Indonesia’s natural gas, raw materials, labor and other costs continue to rise.
According to industry insiders, the total cost of production of unquality glazed porcelain tiles and vitrified porcelain tiles of the same quality in Indonesia has reached 40-50% of energy costs. The proportion of raw materials has reached 25-30%, the proportion of labor and management has reached 25%, and the other proportions are between 10% and 15%. Indonesia’s rising cost of tile production also creates opportunities for Chinese imported ceramic tiles.
Third, due to the reduction of import tariffs on ceramic tiles in Indonesia in January 2018, some Indonesian importers stopped importing at the end of 2017, so the import of Indonesian ceramics increased sharply in the first half of the year.
However, on July 16, 2018, the Indonesian Safeguards Commission issued safeguard measures for imported ceramic tile products, and recommended that the Indonesian government levy a three-year safeguards tax on the products involved. The specific measures are as follows: 23% a year, 21% in the second year and 19% in the third year. (Indonesia’s three-year safeguards tax on imported ceramic tiles: 23%, 21%, 19%) Whether the policy will affect the Indonesian ceramic tile import market in 2019 remains to be seen.
IV. As the largest economy in the “Belt and Road” and the only G20 country in ASEAN, China’s ceramic tiles should be more advantageous than other countries in macroeconomic policy.
British: The tile market has become a challenge
According to the latest news from the British ceramics industry: British ceramic tiles are affected by the decline in consumer demand, and sales in the home improvement industry have also declined. Recently, the largest wall and floor tile company in the UK lost 313 people after losing key customer contracts and was forced to suspend trading.
About the British Trade Minister Liam Fox at the Ceramics Industry Conference, “In the absence of an agreement to leave the EU, it is possible to maintain consumer prices by exempting import tariffs.” British Ceramics Federation (BCC) Executive Director Laura Cohen said that this practice would damage the domestic market. In addition, the British General Union (GMB) also attacked the idea is not feasible. A spokesman for the UK Department of International Trade said that the removal of import tariffs is only one of many proposals. It is not a government policy. The government will examine various programs one by one.
From the perspective of imported countries, the use of ceramic tiles in the UK is mostly in Italy and Spain. There are very few Chinese ceramic products in the country, but Chinese art ceramics are well-received in the UK. People’s love.
From the above analysis, we can see that there are many factors affecting the import of ceramic tiles in a country. The trade war may affect the overall situation, but the development of the real estate industry, the development of the domestic industry, and the macro-control of other governments will have an impact on the import and export of ceramic tiles.
(provided by Shenyang Building Materials Network) <
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